Recruiters the world over are great ‘market-discussers’.

It’s the first thing they talk about when they meet or speak on the phone. “How is the market for you?” is the catch cry.

Even emails often start with, “Hello Greg, I hope the market is treating you well…”

It reaches a frenzy when the market dips or surges. Everyone wants to know. ‘How is the market affecting you?‘ It’s almost pathological. Are we doing well compared to ‘the market‘? Or badly? Are we missing something that others have worked out?

If recruiters had a global sport of choice, it would be  ‘market-talk’, for sure.

And it has been that way with high intensity in Australia this year. Is a recession coming? Has Perm dropped for you? Is Temp holding up?

And so it was in Ireland and the UK on my recent trip. At the Recruitment Expo in London, this was amplified in extreme ways as over 1,000 recruitment leaders gathered in one giant room.

Can you imagine? “How is the market?” was the question du jour.

And what you hear can be interesting. For what it’s worth, the UK market is demonstrably down, especially Perm. I heard talk of recruitment companies going under  – and many Owners telling me they had cut staff—often as much as 25 to 10. Strangely, I heard that magnitude of cutback from three separate owners on the same day!

I also heard some applying a particularly negative spin on things. “It’s as bad as the 2009 recession”, said one chap with a furrowed brow.

He is wrong, by the way. Very, very wrong. And I may have told him so. Also, it turns out he wasn’t even in recruitment in 2009, so there is that to consider. (LOL)

But that’s ‘market banter‘. Often interesting, sometimes helpful, but frequently codswallop too.

So, I enjoyed a particularly telling piece of data provided by REC CEO Neil Carberry, who delivered his usual lucid and informative keynote. Neil provided a balanced and insightful perspective, which I want to share to put the record straight on ‘the market.‘

Here is a copy of one of his slides, which he generously provided me. (Thanks Neil)

What you are looking at here are Permanent Placements and Temporary Billings from 2007 till now.

Perm is dark blue
Temp is teal

No need to get tied up in the details or minutia here. Just look at the significant trends.

And they stand out like the proverbial.

In 2009, you can see how that genuine and deep recession impacted recruitment demand. It’s a downward spike of some magnitude.

In 2020, you can see the impact of the pandemic. A global shutdown.

On the upside, look at 2022. There is that most unexpected but very welcome ‘post-COVID boom’ in hiring that so many recruiters enjoyed and profited from.

Then comes the slowdown. Starting in 2023, it accelerates rapidly and continues into 2024. Perm is down more than Temp and Contract, which most of us have felt.

But it is nothing like the recession or the pandemic.

Not even close!

As Neil says on his slide, the present market is more like a ‘holding pattern’ than a recession.

I agree. Hiring continues, and unemployment is very low. Many skills remain in short supply.

These figures are for the UK, but I am confident Australia would look almost the same, as would most other industrialised nations.

Yes, it’s more complicated to recruit now than it was in 2022, but that was a freak period, and it would never last! Now, clients are more pedantic and less decisive. Candidates are more specific about what they want and tentative to commit.

That’s not a recession. Nor a pandemic.

Truthfully, that is just recruitment!

So, recalibrate your thinking. Don’t talk yourself into a recession mindset. You can’t ‘shrink to greatness‘.
 
Change tactics, step forward, onwards, and upwards!

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