Every recruiter has a view on ‘the market’.

It is often accurate but often an excuse for poor performance.

Undoubtedly, we have dropped from the highs of the post-COVID boom.

But is it that bad?

Compared to a real downturn?

And crucially, is it recovering?

The answer seems to be ‘no’ and ‘yes.’

No, it’s not that bad.

And, yes, it is recovering.

Let’s start with ‘Job Order Growth. (Thanks to JobAdder for their revealing data).

Lots of data, but here is the summary

JobAdder has thousands of recruitment Agency clients. They have tracked and averaged all the jobs those agencies took. (In three countries).

Australia (Dark Blue Line) reached a low point ‘Post-COVID’ in Quarter 4, 2023 of 55.6 new jobs per agency (These are financial year Quarters. So Q4, 2023 is the quarter ending December 2023). This compares to 63 jobs in Q1 2023, so a meaningful decline, you might say. In the first two quarters of 2024, it is up (58.2) and up again (58.9). It’s not huge, but the wheel is turning!

The UK (Light Blue Line) hit its post-COVID low in the same quarter (Q 4, 2023), and that was 43.3 jobs per agency, a significant fall from 58.1 in Q1 2023. This was the ‘hurt period‘ felt by many recruiters in the UK. But again, we are UP in 2024, although the most recent quarter is slightly down on Q1.

New Zealand (Green Line) is doing things tough. Anecdotally, I hear from leaders there that it’s exceptionally challenging. Like Australia and the UK, Q 4 2023 was a significant decline on previous quarters. However, unlike those two countries, the bounce back has been minimal, and the latest quarter is the lowest point in six quarters (44.50)

Looking at  ‘New Jobs Created Per Recruiter’ in the JobAdder data, we can see the same bounce back in the UK and Australia.

However, we must remember that at its worst since COVID-19, the low points were 13.4 jobs per quarter per recruiter in Australia and 11.5 jobs per recruiter in the UK. How many placements do you need to make to have a solid quarter? Six? So, it’s not a disaster. It’s not a recession. It’s nothing like 2009 or other severe downturns of the past. The opportunity was still always there!

Meanwhile, when you consider Temporary vs Permanent job flow, it won’t come as a surprise to many that Temp and Contract roles are up in 2024 as a percentage of total roles.

All this data was taken from JobAdder ANZ and UK ‘State of the Market’ Recruitment Report. Thank you to them. You can get it here.

To reinforce this information, according to the most recent JSA Recruitment Experiences and Outlook Survey of over 1,000 employers in July 2024, national recruitment activity in Australia rebounded quickly in July, with 44% of employers recruiting, a five-point jump compared to June (Australian Government Recruitment Experiences and Outlook Survey. Report here)

Let’s change the pace momentarily and focus solely on the UK.

We turn to The KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs for this data. I love this chart. It cuts through all the hype, emotion, wishful thinking, misinformation and BS

Look closely and then see the comments below

You are looking at permanent placements (blue) and temporary billings (teal) from 2019 till now.

(The red arrows and notation is mine)

And look closely

We track along in 2019 when we all said the ‘market is good’. Temp was better than perm, mostly.

Then Covid! You can’t miss that decline.

Then, the post-COVID boom. And what a boom it was! Did you realise you were riding an unprecedented wave of hiring when you did those hefty fees in 2021/2022?

Look at how perm just peaked!

Then, we all felt the post-COVID boom downturn. But please take two facts into account;

1: It was a decline from an all-time high!

2: It was not that much lower than 2019, which we all agree was ‘good’

Perm declined more than temp, as you can see.

But look where we are now.

Almost back to 2019, which we all know was ‘normal‘!

To quote from the report directly

Half of the sectors covered by the survey showed growth in permanent staff vacancies during July. The most substantial increase was for Nursing & Medical Care staff, followed by Engineering. The steepest decline in permanent staff was for IT & Computing.



Temp vacancies were up across seven sub-categories in July, led by Blue Collar and Engineering. The steepest decline in temp vacancies was seen for Executive & Professional workers.

So, it would be wise for us to all calibrate our thinking.

The market is critical, but so is the recruiter’s mindset.

The market is fine

Hiring continues

No one ever said recruitment would be easy

Do the right things, and you will do very well.

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 Greg Savage Live Event

How to value your recruitment business

Exclusive in-person event in Melbourne

How to value your recruitment business (and how to build a valuable one!)’.

Aimed at recruitment industry owners and leaders, Greg will call on his years of experience as he discusses building a sustainable business, the importance of creating an exit action plan, the factors that affect value and more.

In addition, Greg will host a panel discussion with two recruitment industry leaders who have built value into their businesses.

This will be followed by an opportunity to relax and network with fellow recruitment industry leaders, with food and drinks supplied. All proceeds of the $25 ticket price go to Beyond Blue.

Sign up for Melbourne on September 19th 2024

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Recruitment Agency Expo Birmingham (UK)

Join me at the Recruitment Agency Expo Birmingham 2024, on October 9th and 10th. This event stands as a hub for breakthrough insights, pioneering innovation, and invaluable networking. A compelling roster of speakers, dynamic sessions, and unique exhibits tailored to drive your business ahead. I am presenting on both days on ‘The 14 Sacred Metrics to Run Your Business”, but there are dozens of other skilled speakers and scores of exhibitors, so do not miss out!

This fantastic event is free!
Event website
Register here

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